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Book Reviews

The Coming Collapse of China, by Gordon Chang (New York: Random House, 2002) 368 pages. $26.95

Reviewed by Jean-Marc F. Blanchard, Ph.D

 

Click here to purchase The Coming Collapse of China directly from Amazon.com

 

Much is at stake in China’s future: huge foreign investments, billions of dollars of trade, the global energy equation, the lives of more than a billion people, and the geopolitical situation in the Asia-Pacific region. It is not surprising, therefore, that policymakers, academics, and writers devote so much attention to this topic. What is surprising, however, is how individuals looking at the same facts can arrive at such diametrically opposed conclusions. On one hand, some envision a bright future. On the other, some see a looming disaster on the horizon.

In The Coming Collapse of China, Gordon Chang forcefully argues the pessimist’s case. For Chang, glitzy Shanghai, increasing foreign trade and investment, and a developing high-tech sector do not represent the real China. Instead, the real China is characterized by increasing unemployment and underemployment, massive banking problems, failing state owned enterprises (SOEs), corrupt and repressive Chinese Communist Party (CCP) rule, dissident movements like Falungong, and separatists in Tibet and Xinjiang. Indeed, the situation is so critical that “Beijing has about five years to put things right.” Unfortunately, he believes, the shock of China’s WTO obligations, the government’s lack of fiscal resources, the straitjacket of Communist Party ideology, the Party’s lack of ideological authority, and the power of the Internet mean there is no hope. China is a lake of gasoline and one individual “will have only to throw a match.”

Before taking the money and running, however, businesspeople and policymakers need to consider the following. Chinese leaders and bureaucrats are not hamstrung by ideology and are well aware of the problems they are confronting. Second, Chinese elites are moderating the effects the WTO has on the country. Third, however gradual, China truly is reforming its SOEs, establishing social safety nets, and changing the political system (e.g., by incorporating private entrepreneurs into the Party). Fourth, the Party retains solid control over all the instruments of coercion. Fifth, although the outside world in the form of the WTO will pressure China, the outside world in the form of international investors and financial institutions, and neighboring countries also will help.

As for the merits of Chang’s analysis, it is important to remember that multiple and potent domestic and international factors have to come into alignment for states to collapse or regimes to fall. In addition, unemployment, even massive unemployment, or dissatisfaction with the CCP does not necessarily translate into revolutionary political action. Moreover, the existence of fiscal deficits does not mean the Chinese government has run out of policy options for reflating its economy. Finally, it is true that Marxist-Leninism cannot provide any legitimacy for the CCP, but there are other factors such as nationalism and performance legitimacy that can.

The Coming Collapse of China is repetitious and contradictory at times. It does not offer much new information, and contains some noteworthy factual errors. Nevertheless, I still recommend its purchase for three reasons. First, it is an entertaining book full of colorful anecdotes and quotable statements. Second, it highlights, in one place, all the major challenges that now confront China’s current leadership. Third, it forces us to think about the effect that China’s WTO admission will have on the country. The Coming Collapse of China may not be an apt title, but A Dramatically Changing China would be a hard title to dispute.



Pakistan: Eye of the Storm by Owen Bennett Jones, (New Haven: Yale University Press, 2002) 328 pages $29.95.

Reviewed by Scott B. MacDonald

Click here to purchase ""Pakistan: Eye of the Storm" directly from Amazon.com

Afghanistan was long a forgotten backwater in global politics and this was amply reflected by a sparse literature concerning the country. The Soviet Union’s invasion of Afghanistan in 1978, however, changed this. Afghanistan soon became a center of attraction for both academics and journalists. Having the Taliban in power only helped this, considering the quirky and ruthless nature of the regime. Now, it would appear it is Pakistan’s turn. Long the realm of a handful of academic works and a rare journalistic sortie, Pakistan is becoming a “topic”. Indeed, it is important to have a better understanding of this strategically located country in South Asia which borders Afghanistan, Iran and India. Owen Bennett Jones, a journalist who has worked for the BBC, Financial Times, and The Guardian, has written what is likely to be one of the better new books on Pakistan. Pakistan: Eye of the Storm is well-written, thoughtful, and thought-provoking. While critical of much of what he sees, he clearly is not anti-Pakistani, making his book credible.

The fundamental thrust of Jones’ book is that Pakistan’s creation as a country was done so in such a fashion that its insecurity would remain a central preoccupation of the ruling elite. This insecurity is broadly defined as a long and vulnerable border with India (especially for East Pakistan which became Bangladesh), the frequently fractious nature of its ethnically mixed population (divided between Punjabis, Baluchis, and many others), and lack of strong institutions beyond the military. The overwhelming military threat from neighboring India, with its longstanding dispute over Kashmir, clearly helped maintain the Pakistani military’s central and usually dominating role in its nation’s politics. Hence, the arrival of General Pervez Musharraf upon the scene in 1998’s coup was no surprise nor was it a departure in the country’s political tradition. The other related thread running through the book is the battle over Pakistan’s soul – fought between those who envision a modern country and Islamic radicals, who would prefer a hardline Muslim state, governed by sharia.

Within this complex country, the forces of Islam are having their own civil war. On one side is Musharraf, who has clearly sided Pakistan with the West and a more tolerant world order, and the Islamic radicals on the other. In a sense, Huntington’s clash of civilizations is fully believed by the radicals. As one Islamic radical leader stated: “We believe in the clash of civilizations and our Jihad will continue until Islam becomes the dominant religion.”

Jones concludes that Pakistan is likely to remain in search of a national unifier. Neither Islam nor Urdu has brought greater national cohesiveness. Musharraf does have a vision of a more modern, developed Pakistani nation, less divided by ethnic and religious strife. Yet, Jones ends his book: “If General Musharraf is to transform his vision of Pakistani society into a reality he will need great reserves of political will, and a more effective bureaucracy. He has neither. And while he still believes that the Pakistan army is the solution to the country’s problems, he shows no sign of accepting that, in fact, it is part of the problem.”

Pakistan is an important country in what has become a critical region in international relations. We strongly recommend Jones’ Pakistan: Eye of the Storm.



Editor: Dr. Scott B. MacDonald, Sr. Consultant

Deputy Editor: Dr. Jonathan Lemco, Director and Sr. Consultant

Associate Editors: Robert Windorf, Darin Feldman

Publisher: Keith W. Rabin, President

Web Design: Michael Feldman, Sr. Consultant

Contributing Writers to this Edition: Scott B. MacDonald, Keith W. Rabin, Jonathan Lemco, Jonathan Hopfner, Caroline Cooper, Sergei Blagov, Jean-Marc F. Blanchard and Andrew Thorson



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