Book
Reviews
The Coming Collapse of China,
by Gordon Chang (New York: Random House,
2002) 368 pages. $26.95
Reviewed
by Jean-Marc F. Blanchard, Ph.D
Click
here to purchase The
Coming Collapse of China
directly from Amazon.com
Much
is at stake in China’s future: huge
foreign investments, billions of dollars
of trade, the global energy equation, the
lives of more than a billion people, and
the geopolitical situation in the Asia-Pacific
region. It is not surprising, therefore,
that policymakers, academics, and writers
devote so much attention to this topic.
What is surprising, however, is how individuals
looking at the same facts can arrive at
such diametrically opposed conclusions.
On one hand, some envision a bright future.
On the other, some see a looming disaster
on the horizon.
In The Coming Collapse of China,
Gordon Chang forcefully argues the pessimist’s
case. For Chang, glitzy Shanghai, increasing
foreign trade and investment, and a developing
high-tech sector do not represent the real
China. Instead, the real China is characterized
by increasing unemployment and underemployment,
massive banking problems, failing state
owned enterprises (SOEs), corrupt and repressive
Chinese Communist Party (CCP) rule, dissident
movements like Falungong, and separatists
in Tibet and Xinjiang. Indeed, the situation
is so critical that “Beijing has about
five years to put things right.” Unfortunately,
he believes, the shock of China’s WTO
obligations, the government’s lack
of fiscal resources, the straitjacket of
Communist Party ideology, the Party’s
lack of ideological authority, and the power
of the Internet mean there is no hope. China
is a lake of gasoline and one individual
“will have only to throw a match.”
Before taking the money and running, however,
businesspeople and policymakers need to
consider the following. Chinese leaders
and bureaucrats are not hamstrung by ideology
and are well aware of the problems they
are confronting. Second, Chinese elites
are moderating the effects the WTO has on
the country. Third, however gradual, China
truly is reforming its SOEs, establishing
social safety nets, and changing the political
system (e.g., by incorporating private entrepreneurs
into the Party). Fourth, the Party retains
solid control over all the instruments of
coercion. Fifth, although the outside world
in the form of the WTO will pressure China,
the outside world in the form of international
investors and financial institutions, and
neighboring countries also will help.
As for the merits of Chang’s analysis,
it is important to remember that multiple
and potent domestic and international factors
have to come into alignment for states to
collapse or regimes to fall. In addition,
unemployment, even massive unemployment,
or dissatisfaction with the CCP does not
necessarily translate into revolutionary
political action. Moreover, the existence
of fiscal deficits does not mean the Chinese
government has run out of policy options
for reflating its economy. Finally, it is
true that Marxist-Leninism cannot provide
any legitimacy for the CCP, but there are
other factors such as nationalism and performance
legitimacy that can.
The Coming Collapse of China is repetitious
and contradictory at times. It does not
offer much new information, and contains
some noteworthy factual errors. Nevertheless,
I still recommend its purchase for three
reasons. First, it is an entertaining book
full of colorful anecdotes and quotable
statements. Second, it highlights, in one
place, all the major challenges that now
confront China’s current leadership.
Third, it forces us to think about the effect
that China’s WTO admission will have
on the country. The Coming Collapse of
China may not be an apt title, but A
Dramatically Changing China would be
a hard title to dispute.
Pakistan:
Eye of the Storm by Owen
Bennett Jones, (New Haven: Yale University
Press, 2002) 328 pages $29.95.
Reviewed
by Scott B. MacDonald
Click
here to purchase ""Pakistan:
Eye of the Storm"
directly from Amazon.com
Afghanistan
was long a forgotten backwater in global
politics and this was amply reflected
by a sparse literature concerning the
country. The Soviet Union’s invasion
of Afghanistan in 1978, however, changed
this. Afghanistan soon became a center
of attraction for both academics and journalists.
Having the Taliban in power only helped
this, considering the quirky and ruthless
nature of the regime. Now, it would appear
it is Pakistan’s turn. Long the realm
of a handful of academic works and a rare
journalistic sortie, Pakistan is becoming
a “topic”. Indeed, it is important
to have a better understanding of this
strategically located country in South
Asia which borders Afghanistan, Iran and
India. Owen Bennett Jones, a journalist
who has worked for the BBC, Financial
Times, and The Guardian, has written what
is likely to be one of the better new
books on Pakistan. Pakistan: Eye of the
Storm is well-written, thoughtful, and
thought-provoking. While critical of much
of what he sees, he clearly is not anti-Pakistani,
making his book credible.
The fundamental thrust of Jones’
book is that Pakistan’s creation
as a country was done so in such a fashion
that its insecurity would remain a central
preoccupation of the ruling elite. This
insecurity is broadly defined as a long
and vulnerable border with India (especially
for East Pakistan which became Bangladesh),
the frequently fractious nature of its
ethnically mixed population (divided between
Punjabis, Baluchis, and many others),
and lack of strong institutions beyond
the military. The overwhelming military
threat from neighboring India, with its
longstanding dispute over Kashmir, clearly
helped maintain the Pakistani military’s
central and usually dominating role in
its nation’s politics. Hence, the
arrival of General Pervez Musharraf upon
the scene in 1998’s coup was no surprise
nor was it a departure in the country’s
political tradition. The other related
thread running through the book is the
battle over Pakistan’s soul –
fought between those who envision a modern
country and Islamic radicals, who would
prefer a hardline Muslim state, governed
by sharia.
Within this complex country, the forces
of Islam are having their own civil war.
On one side is Musharraf, who has clearly
sided Pakistan with the West and a more
tolerant world order, and the Islamic
radicals on the other. In a sense, Huntington’s
clash of civilizations is fully believed
by the radicals. As one Islamic radical
leader stated: “We believe in the
clash of civilizations and our Jihad will
continue until Islam becomes the dominant
religion.”
Jones concludes that Pakistan is likely
to remain in search of a national unifier.
Neither Islam nor Urdu has brought greater
national cohesiveness. Musharraf does
have a vision of a more modern, developed
Pakistani nation, less divided by ethnic
and religious strife. Yet, Jones ends
his book: “If General Musharraf is
to transform his vision of Pakistani society
into a reality he will need great reserves
of political will, and a more effective
bureaucracy. He has neither. And while
he still believes that the Pakistan army
is the solution to the country’s
problems, he shows no sign of accepting
that, in fact, it is part of the problem.”
Pakistan is an important country in what
has become a critical region in international
relations. We strongly recommend Jones’
Pakistan: Eye of the Storm.
