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Thaksin's Wars

The Thai Prime Minister’s battles against drugs, crime and beyond

By Jonathan Hopfner

Whatever accusations have been laid upon Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra by his detractors – that he has dictatorial leanings, that he is prone to nationalistic rhetoric, that he continues to pander to his own business interests – even his staunchest critics are forced to admit he is a man of results. Under his tenure the Thai economy grew over 5 percent last year, by far its best performance since the 1997 economic crisis, and despite the damage wrought to the crucial tourism industry by Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and renewed terrorism fears, it is poised to exceed 6 percent growth in 2003.

More importantly, in the eyes of a jaded electorate, he has fulfilled the main pledges he made in the run up to his election in 2001: a 30 baht (US$0.70) per hospital visit medical scheme, a 1 million baht (US$23,000) fund for each of the country’s villages and a moratorium on farmers’ loan repayments have all been instituted during his time in office. The government is now in the midst of an effort to supply low-cost computers to a wide segment of the population and also has plans to build state-subsidized housing for Bangkok’s low-income earners.

All carefully orchestrated PR moves, say the Prime Minister’s critics. But for a man said to be almost morbidly concerned with his image, Thaksin has proved surprisingly willing to court controversy in other areas; most notably when it comes to human rights issues. His “war on drugs,” a February to April crackdown designed to purge the country of “yaba” (methamphetamine) users, resulted in 2,200 deaths. While the government insists most of these deaths resulted from frightened drug dealers turning on each other, human rights monitors insist the police were responsible for the vast majority of the killings. The Bangkok-based Asian Forum for Human Rights and Development said the muted atmosphere surrounding the fatalities showed the government was “bypassing human rights and the rule of law.”

Thaksin and leading members of his Thai Rak Thai party have insisted tough measures were needed to deal with what was becoming an epidemic. One in 17 Thais over 15 is addicted to methamphetamine, according to some estimates, and the United Nations ranks Thailand as the largest consumer of the drug in the world. In the eyes of the government, the ends of the drug war – nearly 20,000 dealers arrested, 280,000 addicts in custody or rehabilitation programs, and a tripling in the street price of yaba, according to the country’s Narcotics Control Board – more than justify the means.

It would seem the public agrees. Recent polls show support for Thaksin and the ruling party at 54 percent, far higher than the 14 percent registered by the country’s opposition, the Democrats. Most political analysts now see the current government not only completing its four-year term in office – which would make it the first of any government in Thailand to do so – but winning another term when general elections are held in two years’ time.

Thaksin himself is obviously confident enough to set the stage for a showdown with another, and far more insidious, problem than drugs: corruption. The government is in the final stages of compiling a list of over 2,700 criminal figures, army and police officers, contractors and opinion leaders who will be targeted in the government’s forthcoming “war on dark influence”. Thaksin claims this will strike at the very heart of the nepotism and shady business dealings that have plagued Thailand for so long. While the aim is to give the figures on the list a chance to rehabilitate, rather than to detain or eliminate them, the Prime Minister is once again promising results as concrete as those that emerged from the battle against drugs.

Yet this time around, even the dynamic Thaksin may have overstepped his bounds. Government spokesman Sita Divari told reporters on July 1 that provincial governors and police officers responsible for compiling the list had not proven fully cooperative. This is unsurprising as few are inclined to implicate their own friends or associates. The criteria used in drawing up the list has also been called into question. It has yet to be fully disclosed and inside sources claim it includes no one within the current government, and the head of the campaign, General Chavalit Yongchaiyudh, has himself been implicated in a number of scandals.

While foreign investors and firms operating in Thailand would no doubt welcome any efforts to stamp out corruption in the country, the vast majority of their most common complaints – bureaucratic inefficiency, ambiguous legislation and a lack of coordination among government departments dealing with large-scale business ventures – have less to do with underground crime lords than the realm of officialdom itself. As Thaksin’s current war looks set to leave the mechanisms of government unscathed, it is unlikely to make Thailand a significantly more attractive place to do business.

Indeed, while he has little trouble gaining the approval of his own people, Thaksin has proven far less adept at winning international hearts and minds. His decision to turn down a visit by the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights at the height of the drug campaign and a current dispute with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees – Thaksin claims the agency has violated Thailand’s sovereignty by granting refugee status to Burmese exiles in Thailand without consulting the Thai government – have once again put his apparent lack of concern for human rights issues in the spotlight.

Few would deny that the Prime Minister’s first duty is to his people. But he would do well to remember that much of Thailand’s prosperity in recent years has been a direct result of the country’s status as one of Asia’s most stable democracies and a haven of political and economic freedom in a troubled region. In pitting his government against multilateral agencies such as the UN, Thaksin may find himself mired in the first war he cannot win
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Editor: Dr. Scott B. MacDonald, Sr. Consultant

Deputy Editors: Dr. Jonathan Lemco, Director and Sr. Consultant and Robert Windorf, Senior Consultant

Associate Editor: Darin Feldman

Publisher: Keith W. Rabin, President

Web Design: Michael Feldman, Sr. Consultant

Contributing Writers to this Edition: Scott B. MacDonald, Sergei Blagov, Jonathan Lemco, Joseph Blalock, Jonathan Hopfner, Caroline Cooper and Robert Windorf



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