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Thaksin's
Wars
The Thai Prime Ministers battles against drugs, crime
and beyond
Whatever
accusations have been laid upon Thai Prime Minister Thaksin
Shinawatra by his detractors that he has dictatorial
leanings, that he is prone to nationalistic rhetoric, that
he continues to pander to his own business interests
even his staunchest critics are forced to admit he is a man
of results. Under his tenure the Thai economy grew over 5
percent last year, by far its best performance since the 1997
economic crisis, and despite the damage wrought to the crucial
tourism industry by Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS)
and renewed terrorism fears, it is poised to exceed 6 percent
growth in 2003.
More importantly, in the eyes of a jaded electorate, he has
fulfilled the main pledges he made in the run up to his election
in 2001: a 30 baht (US$0.70) per hospital visit medical scheme,
a 1 million baht (US$23,000) fund for each of the countrys
villages and a moratorium on farmers loan repayments
have all been instituted during his time in office. The government
is now in the midst of an effort to supply low-cost computers
to a wide segment of the population and also has plans to
build state-subsidized housing for Bangkoks low-income
earners.
All carefully orchestrated PR moves, say the Prime Ministers
critics. But for a man said to be almost morbidly concerned
with his image, Thaksin has proved surprisingly willing to
court controversy in other areas; most notably when it comes
to human rights issues. His war on drugs, a February
to April crackdown designed to purge the country of yaba
(methamphetamine) users, resulted in 2,200 deaths. While the
government insists most of these deaths resulted from frightened
drug dealers turning on each other, human rights monitors
insist the police were responsible for the vast majority of
the killings. The Bangkok-based Asian Forum for Human Rights
and Development said the muted atmosphere surrounding the
fatalities showed the government was bypassing human
rights and the rule of law.
Thaksin and leading members of his Thai Rak Thai party have
insisted tough measures were needed to deal with what was
becoming an epidemic. One in 17 Thais over 15 is addicted
to methamphetamine, according to some estimates, and the United
Nations ranks Thailand as the largest consumer of the drug
in the world. In the eyes of the government, the ends of the
drug war nearly 20,000 dealers arrested, 280,000 addicts
in custody or rehabilitation programs, and a tripling in the
street price of yaba, according to the countrys Narcotics
Control Board more than justify the means.
It would seem the public agrees. Recent polls show support
for Thaksin and the ruling party at 54 percent, far higher
than the 14 percent registered by the countrys opposition,
the Democrats. Most political analysts now see the current
government not only completing its four-year term in office
which would make it the first of any government in
Thailand to do so but winning another term when general
elections are held in two years time.
Thaksin himself is obviously confident enough to set the stage
for a showdown with another, and far more insidious, problem
than drugs: corruption. The government is in the final stages
of compiling a list of over 2,700 criminal figures, army and
police officers, contractors and opinion leaders who will
be targeted in the governments forthcoming war
on dark influence. Thaksin claims this will strike at
the very heart of the nepotism and shady business dealings
that have plagued Thailand for so long. While the aim is to
give the figures on the list a chance to rehabilitate, rather
than to detain or eliminate them, the Prime Minister is once
again promising results as concrete as those that emerged
from the battle against drugs.
Yet this time around, even the dynamic Thaksin may have overstepped
his bounds. Government spokesman Sita Divari told reporters
on July 1 that provincial governors and police officers responsible
for compiling the list had not proven fully cooperative. This
is unsurprising as few are inclined to implicate their own
friends or associates. The criteria used in drawing up the
list has also been called into question. It has yet to be
fully disclosed and inside sources claim it includes no one
within the current government, and the head of the campaign,
General Chavalit Yongchaiyudh, has himself been implicated
in a number of scandals.
While foreign investors and firms operating in Thailand would
no doubt welcome any efforts to stamp out corruption in the
country, the vast majority of their most common complaints
bureaucratic inefficiency, ambiguous legislation and
a lack of coordination among government departments dealing
with large-scale business ventures have less to do
with underground crime lords than the realm of officialdom
itself. As Thaksins current war looks set to leave the
mechanisms of government unscathed, it is unlikely to make
Thailand a significantly more attractive place to do business.
Indeed, while he has little trouble gaining the approval of
his own people, Thaksin has proven far less adept at winning
international hearts and minds. His decision to turn down
a visit by the United Nations High Commissioner for Human
Rights at the height of the drug campaign and a current dispute
with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees
Thaksin claims the agency has violated Thailands sovereignty
by granting refugee status to Burmese exiles in Thailand without
consulting the Thai government have once again put
his apparent lack of concern for human rights issues in the
spotlight.
Few would deny that the Prime Ministers first duty is
to his people. But he would do well to remember that much
of Thailands prosperity in recent years has been a direct
result of the countrys status as one of Asias
most stable democracies and a haven of political and economic
freedom in a troubled region. In pitting his government against
multilateral agencies such as the UN, Thaksin may find himself
mired in the first war he cannot win.