Emerging Market Briefs

By Scott B. MacDonald

Brazil – It’s Official 2003 Was Bad: Official GDP numbers for 2003 are finally out and they confirm that last year was bad on the growth front for Latin America’s largest economy. Real GDP growth was at a negative 0.2%. This was the worst result in a decade. Despite that result, the economy did commence a gradual recovery in the second half of 2003. The government expects real GDP growth in 2004 will be between 3.5% and 4%. The Lula government has also announced it will propose a series of measures for the construction sector, which slid 8.6% last year.

Indonesia: In early March 2004 it was announced that BP PLc is seeking $1.3 billion in loans from Chinese and Japanese lenders to finance the Tangguh gas project. BP PLC was seeking loans from the Bank of China and Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) for the construction of Indonesia's third liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant in the Bird's Head area of Papua province. A consortium consisting of Japan's JGC Corp., U.S. Kellogg Brown & Root, and local company Pertafenikki Engineering won the tender to build the LNG plant at an estimated cost of $1.3 billion, which is expected to enter into full operation in 2007. To date, Tangguh has secured a total of 7.4 million tons per annum of LNG, including contracts to supply 2.6 million tons per annum to China's Fujian province, 1.1 million tons per year to South Korean buyer (SK and Posco) and a preliminary contract to supply 3.7 million tons of LNG to U.S.-based Sempra Energy. The discussion with JBIC was in the final stages, while discussion with the Bank of China was still in the preliminary stages.

Currently, Indonesia has two LNG plants namely Bontang in East Kalimantan and Arun in Aceh province, which have a combined capacity of 31.6 million tons per year. Indonesia's natural gas reserves, both potential and probable, stand at 178 trillion cubic feet (TCF). The Tangguh project will provide significant revenue for Indonesia, particularly Papua, one of the poorest regions in the country. Under the contract, the central government will receive 70 percent of Tangguh's before-tax revenue, while Papua will receive 70 percent of the central government's revenue share.





Israel Implements Sarbanes-Oxley: In early March, the Government Companies Authority adopted part of the US Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002, and will apply it to companies under its jurisdiction. An official announcement to this effect will be published today. The Government Companies Authority notified the accountancy firms and auditors for government companies about the new guidelines yesterday. The key guideline: chairmen, CEOs and CFOs of government companies to sign declarations attesting to the veracity of financial reports. At this stage, the new guidelines will not apply to the three publicly-traded government companies - Bezeq (TASE:BZEQ), El Al (TASE:ELAL), and Ashot Ashkelon Industries (TASE:ASHO)- in order to give the Israel Securities Authority time to issue similar guidelines of its own.



India - Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov and Indian Defense Minister George Fernandes signed a $1.5 billion deal on Jan. 20 to sell the Russian aircraft carrier Admiral Gorshkov to the Indian navy. Russia will refurbish the carrier before delivery in 2008. India is acquiring 28 MIG-29MK jets for the carrier in the deal as well as unspecified parts and components for the carrier, likely to include new missile and radar systems and helicopters.

Editor: Dr. Scott B. MacDonald, Sr. Consultant

Deputy Editors: Dr. Jonathan Lemco, Director and Sr. Consultant and Robert Windorf, Senior Consultant

Associate Editor: Darin Feldman

Publisher: Keith W. Rabin, President

Web Design: Michael Feldman, Sr. Consultant

Contributing Writers to this Edition: Scott B. MacDonald, Keith W. Rabin, Russell Smith, Michael Preiss, Darrel Whitten, T.W. Kang and Michael Feldman



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