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Emerging Market Briefs

By Scott B. MacDonald

China – Energy Thirst Leads to Iranian Deal: China last thursday said it has signed a multibillion dollar deal with Iran to import liquefied natural gas from Iran. The plan calls for Beijing-based Zhuhai Zhenrong Corp. to buy 2.5 million metric tons of LNG a year from Iran starting in 2008. The volume will then be increased to 5 million tons annually, with the agreement to last for 25 years, Zhenrong said. The agreement follows the recent renewal of a term contract, which allows Tianbao (Hong Kong) Energy Co., a Zhenrong unit, to buy 80,000 tons/month of straight-run fuel oil from National Iranian Oil Co. from next month to March 2005. Zhenrong also plans to expand its business into Iran's upstream sector, and is expected soon to finalize terms for the development of three oil fields in Iran, the company said. Zhenrong, a spinoff of China's weapon manufacturer, China North Industries Corp, or Norinco, was established in 1994, with the task of importing crude from Iran. It is now China's sole Iranian crude buyer.

Norinco is among Chinese companies that are actively seeking more opportunities to buy oil and gas reserves outside China. Chinese state-owned energy companies are investing abroad heavily, in response to the government's call to build up overseas assets of hydrocarbons to ensure security of supplies, bridge a widening energy deficit and fuel the country's runaway economy. Iran is currently under U.S. trade sanctions and the Washington administration actively discourages foreign companies from entering Iran's energy business. The fact that Zhenrong was previously part of Norinco could provoke some speculation about China-Iran arms sales.

The U.S. State Department announced in May 2003 the imposition of sanctions against Norinco for supplying specialty steel used in an Iranian missile program. The sanctions included a ban on exports of defense articles and services to Norinco, a ban on U.S. government procurement of Norinco products, and a two-year ban on U.S. imports of Norinco products. Norinco, and the Chinese government, rejected the allegation, saying that it was completely unjustified and groundless. China's largest oil refinery, Sinopec Corp. (SNP), is also active in Iran's oil and gas business, despite U.S. opposition.

Zhenrong imported 12.4 million tons of crude oil from Iran last year, accounting for 14% of China's total crude imports. Most of Zhenrong's Iranian crude imports are processed in Sinopec refineries.




Hong Kong: Hong Kong's unemployment rate fell slightly to 7.2 percent in the three months ending February on improved job prospects in the restaurant and finance sectors, officials said Thursday. Economists had expected the jobless rate to be 7.1 percent for the period until Feb. 29, compared to 7.3 percent in the November-January period. Unemployment declined across a wide variety of business sectors, including financing, insurance, restaurants, communications and recreational services, the government said. It said total employment grew by 9,500, to 3.25 million during the period. Hong Kong is continuing its recovery from the severe acute respiratory syndrome crisis, which devastated the economy by keeping tourists away, pushing joblessness to a record 8.7 percent in May-July last year.




Indonesia – the Cost of Illegal Logging: There are always trade offs between activities in the legal and black market economies. In Indonesia a heavy price is being paid for illegal logging, as legally established firms are suffering. Around 70 per cent or 322 of 460 companies operating in the upstream sector of the timber processing industry in the country have collapsed over the past few years mainly as a result of rampant illegal logging. There are many factors but illegal logging was the main culprit causing the bankruptcy of the companies said Agung Nugraha, deputy secretary of the Indonesian association of forestry companies (APKI). Rampant illegal logging a caused big shortage in the supply of log raw material for the country's plywood, sawn timber and pulp factories, Nugraha said. He said the industries need around 20 million cubic meters of logs a year and supply from natural forests is much less than 10 million m3. He said illegal logging has caused damage to 43 million hectares of natural forests in the country reducing the country's tropical forests from 153 million hectares to 98 million hectares over the past year.

Malaysia – The March 29th Elections: On March 29th, Malaysia voters went to the polls to elect a new government. As was the case over the last several decades, the ruling multi-ethnic coalition, the Barison Nasional or BN, won handily, reasserting the dominant role of the United Malays National Organization (UMNO) within the majority Malay community. The BN captured 198 of the 210 (90%) seats in the federal parliament or 64.4% of all votes cast (up from 56.6% in 1999 and just below the 65% it scored in 1995). This was decidedly good news for the standing Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi, who had earlier assumed the leadership role from longstanding Prime Minister Mohammad Mahathir. Despite considerable speculation as the strength of the Islamic issue in swaying voters to opt to non-BN parties, Badawi marked his first outing as national leader with a sweeping victory, which should provide him the opportunity to further put his own personal stamp on the direction of the country.




Pakistan – Foreign Exchange Down: Pakistan's foreign exchange reserves slipped slightly to $12.560 billion in the week to March 13, down $5 million from the previous week, the State Bank of Pakistan said on Thursday. The central bank gave no reason for the fall, but bankers said the slide was mainly due to quarter-end repayments of foreign debt. The central bank said its direct holdings were $10.764 billion and those of commercial banks were $1.796 billion. The central bank changed the method it uses to calculate foreign reserves in 2002. It now monitors the total liquid foreign reserves, including previously undisclosed foreign exchange deposits by banks.



Philippines – Less Money in Reserve: The Philippines' gross international reserves are expected to fall to $15 billion at the end of this year from $16.9 billion as of end 2003, the central bank said on Thursday. The central bank uses the reserves to intervene "from time to time" to support the weak peso, but "we will not use up our gross international reserves to defend an unrealistic FX rate", Governor Rafael Buenaventura told Reuters on Wednesday. The international reserves comprise the foreign currency holdings of the central bank, including gold and International Monetary Fund special drawing rights.



Turkey – A Little Less Change in the Pocket: Turkey's central bank foreign currency reserves fell $946 million to $31.853 billion in the week ending on March 12. Gold reserves were unchanged at 1.558 billion. Turkey's total gross reserves on February 27, the latest available data, were $47.126 billion, of which $12.187 billion was with private institutions, including commercial banks. The central bank held the rest.


Editor: Dr. Scott B. MacDonald, Sr. Consultant

Deputy Editors: Dr. Jonathan Lemco, Director and Sr. Consultant and Robert Windorf, Senior Consultant

Associate Editor: Darin Feldman

Publisher: Keith W. Rabin, President

Web Design: Michael Feldman, Sr. Consultant

Contributing Writers to this Edition: Scott B. MacDonald, Keith W. Rabin, Russell Smith, Michael Preiss, Darrel Whitten, T.W. Kang and Michael Feldman



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