By
Scott B. MacDonald
In
July Japan will go the polls to re-elect half of the
242 seats in the upper house of the Diet. We do not expect
any major changes. Although the Democratic Party of Japan
(DPJ) is seeking to capture more seats than the LDP (which
now holds 50 seats), Koizumi remains a skillful player
in the political game. The DPJ’s battle plan is
to convince the public that Prime Minister Koizumi’s
economic reforms have failed and that the sending of
Self Defense Force troops to Iraq is a mistake. Although
the success of Koizumi’s reforms is indeed questionable,
the Japanese economy is on the upswing and Nikkei is
trading well above the lows of recent years. Unemployment
is down to 5% from a high of 5.5%. In addition, Koizumi’s
attention to raising Japan’s standing in international
affairs has been one of the more significant areas of
success.
The decision to send troops to Iraq was a well-calculated decision on the
part of Koizumi. On one hand it signaled to the rest of the world that
Japan was ready and willing to assume a more active international role.
On the other hand, Tokyo’s engagement in Iraq had a payoff with the
United States, which Japan wants to be fully engaged in regard to North
Korea. After all, it was North Korea that fired a test missile over the
Home Islands in 1998. It was a North Korean spy ship that exchanged gunfire
with and was sunk by Japanese patrol boats in 2001 (inside Japanese waters)
and it was the regime of Kim Il-jong that acknowledged that North Korea
had in the past kidnapped Japanese citizens. North Korea is Japan’s
most immediate security concern. Considering the need to keep North Korea
engaged, Tokyo wants to make certain that Washington maintains the pressure
on Kim’s government to eventually disarm its nuclear weapons program.
Tokyo also needs to keep Washington involved in East Asia as an important
balancing power to China. China and Japan are already competing for scarce
energy resources around the world and in the future this is likely to extend
to markets. There are also disputes over various pieces of real estate
in the waters intersecting the two countries.
However, the sending of troops and other personnel to Iraq is not without
risks. The taking of five Japanese nationals as hostages heightened public
worries about their country’s Middle Eastern involvement.
Although Koizumi refused to deal with the hostage takers (who released
their prisoners), the Middle Eastern exposure has also opened Japan to
the possibility of terrorist attacks. There is a danger that Japan’s
upcoming July election could attract a similar attack as occurred in Madrid,
with the strategic objective of punishing the LDP-led coalition government
for its support of the United States in Iraq. A major terrorist incident
in Japan would also hurt Koizumi in the one area where he has been very
successful – foreign affairs. For al-Qaeda hitting hard against the
LDP in July could bring big dividends. Japan’s next lower house election
is not set until 2007. A major loss in the upper house election could force
an earlier electoral contest. In such an environment, Koizumi could be
forced to retreat from his Iraq policy (due to considerable opposition
within his own party) or be forced to resign due to a loss of public confidence.
In addition, the DJP has already stated that it would withdraw Japanese
troops from Iraq. Short of a major terrorist attack, Koizumi’s major
opposition, the DJP, should be manageable. The situation will decidedly
test the Prime Minister’s skills.
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