By
Scott B. MacDonald
The
international political system in Asia remains unsettled
and the potential for a new crisis is growing. As the
United States remains pre-occupied with the Middle
East and Afghanistan, relations between China and Taiwan
are increasingly strained. Taiwan’s political
situation is undergoing an important change, as the
issue of declaring “independence” from
mainland China is a growing possibility. In turn, China
is deeply concerned that Taiwan would declare its independence,
uprooting the fiction that the two parties will eventually
be re-unified. From Beijing’s standpoint any
departure from the “two Chinas” script
is cause for war. If Taiwan can be allowed to “leave” the
Chinese nation-state, then so to will Tibet or the
Muslim dominated northwest be tempted. While much of
the world’s attention is closely focused on the
daily bombings and assassinations in Iraq and Saudi
Arabia, the pieces are falling into place for another
major international crisis in Asia.
The root of the problem is that China regards Taiwan as a breakaway province.
Taiwan and the mainland have been separated since the Nationalists retreated
to the island in 1949, establishing a rival regime to the Communists in
Beijing. Over time, the power of the Nationalists gave way to a younger
generation, many of whom place a greater significance on being Taiwanese
than Chinese. Today a large number of Taiwanese increasingly see themselves
as a separate country, with a working capitalist economy and democracy.
China in comparison is ruled by the Communist Party, is not fully capitalist
and political freedoms are few. Indeed, China’s recent efforts to
suppress Hong Kong’s political freedoms does not send a positive
message to the Taiwanese, who are looking for reassurances that if re-united
to the mainland their political rights would be upheld. Recently re-elected
President Chen Shui-bian is taking advantage of these concerns, having
embraced the doctrine of independence. He has called for a referendum on
whether a new constitution should be drafted in 2006, for adoption in 2008.
Anything that looks like independence for Taiwan has a poor reception in
Beijing. The Chinese establishment has repeatedly indicated that if President
Chen embarks upon this course of action and declares independence, it will
be forced to invade. In the meantime, the Chinese military has been active
with war games, practicing to invade Taiwan. At the end of July, Chinese
militias staged a two-day weekend exercise off the southeastern coast,
following up on drills by the People’s Liberation Army earlier in
the month. With an eye to the United States, Taiwan’s major ally,
China also recently revealed a new submarine class. The message is simple
- if the U.S. seeks to come to Taiwan’s aid in the event of a crisis,
the new submarines will be waiting.
China’s leadership is carefully weighing four things. First and foremost,
Taiwan’s President Chen is seeking to change the status quo. China
does not have de facto control over Taiwan. What is does have is a territorial
claim that the island is part of the Chinese nation, something that is
widely recognized. In reality, Taiwan runs its own affairs, but has traditionally
maintained the façade that it will seek an eventual re-unification
between the two lands. Chen now threatens this façade.
Second, the Bush administration has slightly shifted policy on Taiwan.
In particular, President Bush signed legislation on June 14, supporting
Taiwan’s efforts to gain observer status in the World Health Organization
(WHO). Although such a decision is not an abandonment of the official U.S.
policy of one China, any such move as what the Bush administration did
in regard to the WHO is seen as having some recognition of Taiwan’s
right to exist an independent state.
Third, the U.S. government earlier agreed to an $18 billion weapons upgrade
package for Taiwan. Those weapons are now starting to arrive. They include
Patriot anti-missile systems and P-3 anti-submarine aircraft. Such armaments
could reduce the capacity of the Chinese military to launch what it calls
a decapitation strike, based on missiles and paratroopers hitting Taiwan’s
national leadership in the capital Taipei. We expect tensions to rise as
new weapons are delivered.
On July 8, National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice was sent to Beijing
to help smooth over relations. She met with former President Jiang Zemin
and Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing. During the meeting, Jiang asserted to
Rice that the “Chinese people are seriously concerned and dissatisfied
about U.S. selling of advanced weapons to Taiwan.” The next day President
Hu Jintao also indicated that Taiwan’s status was the key to Sino-American
relations. In response, Rice was reported to have stated that the U.S.
would continue selling arms to Taiwan to provide a healthy “balance” of
power with China.
Fourth, a crisis over Taiwan could come at a good time for China’s
leadership, itself struggling to deal with massive economic challenges.
As Beijing seeks to cool the Chinese economy, there is always the danger
of social unrest, something that the leadership deeply fears. Playing the
nationalism card could refocus people from problems with the economy at
home to an issue in which China’s honor and standing are perceived
at risk. Considering Washington’s preoccupation with the Middle East
and the stretched nature of the U.S. military, China’s leadership
might calculate they could actually get away with “retaking” Taiwan.
At the same time, China’s leadership should not be treated as a monolith.
There are differences of opinion and emphasis between former president
Jiang and his successor, Hu. The former has traditionally taken a hard
line on Taiwan and retains his post as Chairman of the Central Military
Commission. He is also reluctant to leave the political scene and tensions
have risen between Hu and Jiang.
Hu appears to be a little more cautionary, largely for concerns that an
arms race with Taiwan would be costly to the Chinese economy at a time
when slowing growth to a more manageable pace is critical if inflationary
pressures are to be checked and a hard landing avoided. Along these lines,
Hu stated in the overseas edition of the official People’s daily
that China “must unwaveringly walk the path of peaceful development”.
Consequently, Hu is more concerned about the impact of a new crisis over
Taiwan, especially with a view to the economy.
However, even Hu is vulnerable to the Taiwan issue, as it would very difficult
for him to allow an official declaration of independence to go unanswered.
There may not be a crisis in the Straits of Taiwan, but the chances are
increasing. This issue should gain greater attention in Washington, but
also from Tokyo. Considering China’s greater weight as a global trade
partner and as a holder of large foreign exchange reserves (including dollars)
and U.S. Treasuries, a Taiwan crisis could disrupt world economic growth
and, of course, ripple into U.S. stock and bond markets.