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NEW YORK (KWR) May 11, 2006 --While there is an intense debate over the need to diplomatically engage Iran over its nuclear power program which it asserts is for electricity generation, the stark reality is that Teheran is on its way to obtaining nuclear weapons. Ultimately the world must come to terms with a nuclear Iran, considering that the military option is not likely and diplomatic means will prove flaccid. It is difficult to see how the United Nations Security Council will achieve the needed unity to undertake any meaningful action. This, of course, underscores the international nature of the Iranian nuclear crisis and how countries act in their own national interest. In addition, East Asia has a considerable amount at stake in the Middle East.
East Asia remains a region that is highly dependent on external sources of energy. Simply stated, the region's supplies of oil, gas and coal are increasingly dwarfed by growing demand, especially as ownership of the automobile expands into a consumer-minded middle class in China. This concern over secure energy supplies was reflected by Premier Hu Jin-tao's April visit to Nigeria with a $4 billion offer to help develop oil resources, a recent round of official discussions with OPEC to enhance cooperation between the two sides, and the signing of a memorandum with Pakistan on building an "energy corridor" to allow the East Asian nation to access oil and gas resources in Central and East Asia.
China is not alone as Japan and South Korea are also actively seeking to develop multiple energy sources. This was reflected by the April agreement between Japan and Qatar to enhance cooperation and cement a long-term energy trade. Along these lines, the East Asian countries are forced to come back to Iran, the world's fourth largest oil producer, and the world's second largest holder of proved reserves.
Iran's objective is clear - to re-write the Middle East's geo-political map, with Teheran as the leader of the Muslim world, armed by oil reserves (upon which the West is dependent) and eventually nuclear weapons. Iran has developed close relations with Syria, is alleged to be training Islamic radicals from throughout the region, and has stepped up to compensate for the loss of European and U.S. money originally earmarked for the Palestinian government after Hamas refused to renounce the use of violence against Israel. Israel has been a major target of Iran's posturing, with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad calling it a "fake regime". Needless to say, such comments have done little to help it develop a dialogue with the United Nations, the European Union or the United States, let alone Israel.
And Iran has rejected a number of diplomatic initiatives. It has said no to the European carrot approach of offers of trade, improved links and help with other nuclear technologies. It has also thumbed its nose vis-à-vis the Russian offer to enrich uranium on Iran’s behalf.
While East Asia has been relatively quiet about Iran's nuclear policies, it has a lot at stake. Iran is the second largest oil producing country in the Middle East and a little over half is destined for East Asia. Of Iran's total oil exports, Japan accounts for 28 percent, with China and South Korea each accounting for 12 percent. If Iran's production were shut off - for whatever reason - it would clearly have an impact on East Asia's economies. Moreover, if a full-blown crisis were to emerge, that risk would be extended to the entire Persian Gulf as Iran has the capacity to disrupt tanker traffic through the Straits of Hormuz.
Considering that East Asian countries are locked in fierce competition over hydrocarbon resources, Iran is a major policy dilemma. On one hand, there is concern about the spread of nuclear weapons in a highly volatile region. On the other hand, there is only so much oil in the world and Iran has a well-developed infrastructure for production and export. This explains China's unwillingness to cooperate with the U.S. effort to place greater pressure on Teheran by putting economic sanctions on the list of options for consideration by the United Nations.
The situation is further complicated by the growing weakness of the United States. While Seymour Hersh's (April 17th, 2006) article in The New Yorker claims the Bush administration "has increased clandestine activities inside Iran and intensified planning for a possible major air attack", high oil prices, the Iraqi imbroglio, and a sizeable budget deficit are undermining Washington's ability to act in a more forceful (i.e. military) fashion. Certainly U.S. policymakers are seeking to make the case for regime change in Iran as the solution. This is something that is not likely to leave most East Asian countries comfortable, in particular China, which is not democratic and is perceived as a major strategic rival. In Beijing the question is being asked if the U.S. successfully pursues regime change in Iran, would it try the same thing in China?
There is also considerable concern by East Asian countries that the U.S. could start a new war with Iran, but would not be able to finish it, i.e. end up with a repeat experience of Iraq - a destabilized political situation that undermines the country's ability to export oil and natural gas. An Iranian war would also increase the spread of terrorism and both Japan and South Korea have troops in Iraq - easy targets for attack. Furthermore, China has to take into consideration its own restive Muslim population, some of which have already received outside support and training.
All the same Iran's gambit to become a nuclear power leaves a sense of unease in most Asian capitals. No one has missed the rise of apocalyptic Shiites in Teheran and the expansion of the Revolutionary Guards under President Ahmadinejad. The ideological bent is anti-Western, aggressive and driven by the belief that to defend Iran's right to being a great power it needs nuclear weapons. Certainly North Korea's and Pakistan's ability to obtain nuclear weapons has fueled Iran's desire.
The weighing of national interests and the very strong positions of Iran and the United States have left the situation exceedingly complicated for East Asia, which clearly prefers a diplomatic solution. President Ahmadinejad’s letter to President Bush gave a flicker of hope in this direction, which since seems to have passed, feeding the desire Iran might be a little more flexible. The Economist (May 6th, 2006) commented on the difficulties of the diplomatic approach: “…to keep up as united a diplomatic front against the atomic ayatollahs as possible, while encouraging other influential Iranians to weigh the costs of isolation.”
The words spoken by Japan's Energy Minister Toshihiro Nikai probably reflect the view of his Chinese and South Korean counterparts: "Japan is absolutely against Iran's nuclear development. But at the same time the relationship with Iran has always been cordial. So going forward both in terms of energy and nuclear, we will keep an eye and respond accordingly."
The bottom line is that Iran will continue its march to obtaining nuclear weapons, tensions in the Middle East will remain high, and the oil will continue to flow - at least for now. But the cost will come with the growing threat of nuclear war in the Middle East, which could ultimately bring the era of hydrocarbon economies to a halt under a dark cloud of radiation. For this to be averted, the U.S., Europe, Russia and East Asia need to develop a unified front; otherwise the drift to conflict will only intensify.
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