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[ Approach ][ Capabilities ][ Staff ][ Clients ][ Press ][ Library ][ Contact ]NEW DELHI (KWR) - August 20, 2007 -- India has set itself an ambitious target of providing electric power for the nation by the year 2012. The country's National Electricity Policy wants the entire billion plus population to have access to power by 2012 and to raise the per capita availability of electricity by nearly 50 percent. This goal requires another 78,000 mw of capacity by 2012. Based on the progress visualized by government planners for the nation during the next two decades, the country's power generating capacity needs to increase to 400,000 mw by 2030 from the existing 130,000 mw. But, by all accounts, that appears to be a tall order, particularly considering India's past performance.
The Indian economy is growing at one of the fastest rates in the world. This leads to a high demand for additional energy, in particular electricity - at 9 percent every year. India's electricity consumption is sixth globally and third in Asia with 606 units of per capita consumption per annum. It is set to increase to 1,000 units per annum by 2012. The power generation capacity has to grow by at least 10 percent to sustain the current GDP growth of 9 percent, say industry experts. Ideally, they say, the ratio of energy generation and GDP growth should be 1:1.
The government has set an ambitious capacity addition target of 78,557 mw during the country's 11th five-year economic plan period (2007-12). The government is expecting a capacity addition of 16,785 mw in 2007-08, the first year of the plan, another 7,272 mw in 2008-09, 15,198 mw in 2009-10, 16,970 mw in 2010-11 and 22,372 mw in 2011-12. The envisaged capacity addition of over 76,000 mw comprises 58,644 mw or 75 percent in thermal, 16,553 mw or 21 percent in hydropower and 3,380 mw or 4 percent in nuclear power. Currently, 44,000 mw is under construction.
However, most experts dismiss this target as unrealistic given the country's past track record. During the 10th plan period (2002-07) which ended in March, the country could add just half of the targeted 41,000 mw. The story was not different during the ninth plan period (1997-2002), when only 19,000 mw or less than half the target was achieved.
On the distribution front too, there has been little solace in the overall transmission and distribution losses or the broader measure of aggregate technical and commercial losses. Over a third of the power generated fails to reach the consumer. The transmission segment also requires massive investment to boost capacity. The power sector will need investment of around $100 billion if it goes in for a capacity addition of 78,000 mw during the 11th Plan period. Of the total amount, $50 billion would alone be needed for raising the generation capacity while the rest would be required for transmission, distribution and related activities, says India's top bureaucrat in the power sector, RV Shahi. As such, the government's slogan of "power for all" by 2012 sounds increasingly problematic.
However, one bright spot in this dismal scenario is that nuclear power and wind energy is looking up. India's emerging nuclear power sector received a major boost in mid-2006 when it signed a civilian nuclear cooperation agreement with the United States. The country currently has 16 reactors in operation, with a total capacity of 3,577 mw, providing about 3 percent of the nation's electric generation capacity. Another seven reactors with a total capacity of 3,000 mw are now under construction, and there are proposals for 24 more, which would add 13,160 mw in total.
The government recently announced plans for massive investments in nuclear power plants by 2030. "We are first trying to reach 20,000 mw and scale it up to 40,000 mw by 2030," said Anil Kakodkar, chairman of the state-run Atomic Energy Commission.
As for wind energy, India has emerged as the world's fifth-largest wind energy producer. Today, windmills dot the landscape in several southern and western states such as Tamil Nadu, Rajasthan, Gujarat and Maharashtra, producing a total of 6,000 mw of power.
So far, wind energy accounts for a meager one percent of the total power produced in the country. Over the next five years, wind energy generation is expected to more than double, with the addition of 8,000 mw to existing capacity. That is still far short of India's potential wind-power generation, which has been estimated at 45,000 mw.