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A New Italian Foreign Policy By Andrew Novo (Mr. Novo is a Political Analyst with KWR International) On November 7th, the Italian government announced its intention to commit 2,700 of its military personal, including the aircraft carrier Garibaldi to the forces currently engaged in Afghanistan. The Italian lower-house, the Camera, passed the resolution by a stunning margin of 513 to 31. This announcement came the day after Germany had offered some 3,900 troops to the war effort. The tangible offer of military aid from Italy is just the most recent affirmation of support from Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi’s center-right government for the American-lead campaign against terrorism. Mr. Berlusconi has been committed to setting Italy squarely on the side of the United States in this conflict. Among Europe’s leaders, this puts him with Prime Minister Tony Blair as the two leaders most committed to the American war against terrorism. Among other leading European nations, France has been the most hesitant about the possible commitment of troops, while elements within Prime Minister Schroeder’s left-center coalition government in Germany have spoken out strongly against the war. In Spain, Prime Minister Filipe Aznar has voiced his support but not offered any material military aid, while because of Turkey’s support for the war effort, Greek support has been lukewarm. A more affirmative Italy in foreign affairs is a decided departure from its approach over the last several decades. As soon as the United States’ military campaign began against Afghanistan on October 7, Mr. Berlusconi announced that Italy was "ready to participate in military operations" in support of "his friend" President Bush. Mr. Berlusconi has announced his intention to provide the United States with both "moral and material support." These policies are consistent with the Prime Minister’s hope for Italy to play "a direct role" in the war against terrorism. The offer of military personal for use in the campaign in Afghanistan, with an eye to becoming a possible force of occupation following the fall of the Taliban, is the latest step in the Prime Minister’s attempts to bring Italy to the forefront of international affairs. In Mr. Berlusconi’s own words to the Camera, "We must do our part" and act as a united nation. Mr. Berlusconi is anxious for Italy to play a major role in the international community, building on her deployment of peace-keeping troops in the Balkans. What Berlusconi does not want, is for Italy to be reduced to an insignificant secondary role as happened during the 1991 Persian Gulf War. These actions make it clear that the Berlusconi government is intent on pursuing a high-profile international policy — but there are risks. Italy’s recent economic troubles put her in a delicate situation. While the wave of anti-terrorist sentiment has been enough to sustain Mr. Berlusconi’s ambitious plans, any setback will force a reassessment, certainly among the less than enthusiastic supporters. Popular sentiment is now geared for deployment and combating terrorism, but the dissipation of the Taliban is bringing the urgency of these cries to a halt. The alliance was given an important boost on November 16th, when Germany’s troop deployment of 3,900 men was passed, tied to a vote of confidence for Prime Minister Schroeder’s left-center government. While Schroeder faced opposition from Green and Social-democrat party members within his coalition, they closed ranks and supported the bill with only a few dissenting votes. However, recent poles show that the majority of German people (as high as 55%) do not support the commitment of German troops to the war effort. Italy faces a similar division among its citizens. For Mr. Berlusconi’s government, the issue of confidence is not as pressing at the moment, but support can only be maintained by continued success. The Prime Minister’s loud support for the United States operations has made him a prime target for any opposition within the country. While the Camera and Senate seem strongly behind the Prime Minister, there are elements within Italian society that are much less pro-war. This was demonstrated quite clearly by the peace march in Assissi during October. It drew a quarter of a million communists, pacifists, and conservative Catholics to call for peace. In addition, Italy and Mr. Berlusconi’s government face a more challenging set of political and economic concerns than any other ally in America’s camp. Italy’s economic situation was poor upon Mr. Berlusconi’s accession to power earlier this year, and his Minister of Finance, Mr. Julio Tremonti, was raked over the political coals to bring about a solution to Italy’s fiscal problems over the past summer. At the moment, concerns of world safety, and Italy’s commitment to "do her part" have overridden calls for peace. Italy’s less than ideal encounter with the G8 meeting in Genoa over the summer has perhaps contributed to the belief that in the case of "international issues," no country is safe and that all nations must look to their safety. However, all of these current supports for the war against terrorism have their foundations in the successful conduct and conclusion of that struggle. The success thus far of the war on the ground has strengthened the government’s hand. Mr. Belusconi’s call for troops to fight the war was a bet that worked. Now the challenge is how to win the peace and for Italy to have a role in making things work. Considering that the former Afghan king lived for many years in exile in Rome, Italy could have a role to play. All the same, Italy appears ready and willing to be more assertive in international and European affairs. Will this bring benefits to Italy? Only time will tell
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Editor: Dr. Scott B. MacDonald, Sr. Consultant Deputy Editor: Dr. Jonathan Lemco, Director and Sr. Consultant Associate Editors: Robert Windorf, Darin Feldman Publisher: Keith W. Rabin, President Web Design: Michael Feldman, Sr. Consultant Contributing Writers to this Edition: Scott B. MacDonald, Keith W. Rabin, Uwe Bott, Jonathan Lemco, Jim Johnson, Andrew Novo, Joe Moroney, Russell Smith, and Jon Hartzell
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