Can
Restructuring Revive the Asian Locomotive?
By
Keith W. Rabin, President,
KWR International, Inc
After the onset of the
Asian financial crisis in 1997, there was considerable discussion
about the need to revive the Asian and European "locomotive"
to allow the U.S. economy to slow down. The U.S. economy began
to weaken significantly last year. While this can be seen as
a necessary consequence of the speculative dot.com era, the
events of September 11th accentuated negative pressures, which
are now further exacerbated by the fallout from the Enron debacle.
As a result, Asia and the rest of the world sit nervously. They
await the resurgence of U.S. demand, which they believe supports
the health of their own economies. However, they are likely
to be disappointed.
While many analysts predict
a U.S. upturn in the near future the Fed has less leverage
to reduce interest rates, consumer debt is at exceedingly high
levels, and corporations are under extreme pressure to maintain
a conservative accounting posture. Their optimism therefore
seems misguided, as there is little to support the sustained
momentum required to drive a strong advance in U.S. equity markets.
Wall Street demands linear
earnings growth quarter over quarter, and this will be a real
challenge for U.S. firms moving forward. Much of the profit
growth that underpinned the U.S. bull market of the 1980s and
early '90s was based on widespread corporate restructuring and
rationalization. U.S. firms, however, have been engaged in operational
reorganization for almost two decades. While there are certainly
pockets of efficiency to be gained moving forward, the easy
gains have already been achieved. The incremental benefits of
additional cost-based initiatives are unlikely to have anywhere
near the impact on corporate profitability and efficiency as
those of the past.
Put another way, if you
weigh 300 pounds and drink and smoke heavily, you will show
dramatic improvements if you change your behavior and begin
to eat right and exercise regularly. Once, however, you achieve
your optimal weight and become a marathon runner, there is little
one can do to maintain the same degree of incremental improvement
short of introducing steroids or other solutions that ultimately
may do more harm than good.
Given their limited ability
to increase profitability through cost-based initiatives, U.S.
firms need to shift their focus toward alternative solutions
that can deliver the top line revenue growth needed to justify
the price/earnings multiple they desire. This generally entails
either a growth through acquisition or expansion strategy or
one that calls for innovation and the introduction of new products,
services or business models.
Companies such as Citigroup,
Tyco and GE have been highly successful employing a financially
driven acquisition-oriented strategy, though this too is ultimately
based upon the cost reductions that can be achieved through
corporate integration. Additionally, the current move toward
cleaner accounting and the difficulty these firms have had of
late maintaining an attractive acquisition currency in the form
of a high share price, call into question whether this will
remain a viable strategy during the next stage of the business
cycle. An alternative model calls for organic or international
expansion. Firms such as McDonalds and Walmart, financial
service firms and many export oriented manufacturers have chosen
this route, but in many ways this is dependent on the strength
of the economies into which these firms seek to expand.
Potentially the most attractive
option calls for growth through innovation. This requires "creative
destruction" and a shift toward new business models, technologies
and the products of tomorrow. While companies must engage in
R&D and move rapidly to stay ahead of the curve, massive
change is extremely hard to predict and implement. One has only
to look at the large debts taken on by telecom firms who unsuccessfully
sought to develop models that would deliver extraordinary growth
within the mature industries in which they operate. One can
also look at the graveyard of companies that promised to harness
the Internet or Enron, Lucent, and Xerox to see how difficult
it is to reinvent large multinational corporations.
Growth through innovation
also requires capital spending. With the U.S. recession and
corporate efforts to cut costs, capital spending has been slashed
in almost every sector. Tech and telecom-related firms, the
areas most likely to show dramatic innovation, have been hit
particularly hard. Such capital expenditures bloodletting could
become too severe, further aggravating the ability of the U.S.
economy to achieve the growth now being forecast.
Corporations in Asia and
other parts of the world, however, have by and large not participated
in the wholesale move toward restructuring seen in the U.S.
and the U.K. in the 1980-90s. While this has put them at a disadvantage,
it also means these gains are before them. If these companies
were able to move beyond the admittedly serious social, political
and institutional obstacles needed to introduce these reforms,
they could introduce enormous profitability growth in a relatively
short period of time. This would result in a tremendous upward
shift in valuations as investors began to shift their capital
accordingly.
Viewed another way, in
1982, the year former U.S. Treasury Secretary William Simon
initiated a leveraged buy-out of Gibson Greetings, which many
view as the start of the U.S. restructuring craze, the Dow Jones
index traded as low as 770. By the end of 1995, before the Internet
and dot.com phase took off, we saw a rise of over 400% above
5,000. Most of this increase can be attributed to the productivity
increases allowed by corporate reengineering and restructuring.
Therefore, while a sustained
recovery of U.S. market growth appears dependent on unpredictable
factors such as the success of broad-band penetration, advances
in biotechnology or other applications that promise to be the
"next big thing", Asian markets can deliver enormous
gains through the tried and true methods of cost-based restructuring.
Of course, it should be
recognized this is only a short-term solution. Once having achieved
this advance, they will then be in the same boat as the U.S.
and other economies that have engaged in cost-reduction strategies.
This will require they successfully introduce the same kind
of revenue-based solutions now needed in the U.S., or they will
not be able to preserve the gains they will have achieved.
By that time, however,
the U.S. locomotive should again be picking up steam, having
had sufficient time to work its excesses out of its system.
Countries and corporations who have engaged in serious efforts
to rationalize and reorganize their macro- and micro-economies,
however, will be better prepared to compete as a result.