China
and WTO Compliance: The Glass Will Remain Half Full
By
Dr. Jean-Marc Blanchard, Sr. Consultant
After
15 years of tortuous negotiations, China finally became a member
of the World Trade Organization (WTO) last December. American
policymakers were ecstatic about this development, arguing it
will eliminate subsidies, enhance intellectual property rights,
and encourage the development of a Chinese legal system. They
point to a mix of lucrative opportunities occasioned by China's
involvement in the WTO system, including newfound market access
for American banks, telecommunication companies, and other service
providers and the ability to export an additional $2 billion of
agriculture goods. The central issue, though, is whether American
businesses can truly count on China to fulfill its agreements.
The argument here contends that China will comply in large measure,
though not fully, with its commitments.
China's
deep involvement in the global economic system gives Chinese leaders
incentives to meet their WTO obligations. As well, Chinese leaders
see participation in the WTO as a way to spur competition and
limit corruption. Other Chinese elites view the WTO as a bludgeon
they can exploit to restructure money losing state-owned enterprises
(SOEs). American policymakers are not relying solely on these
interests to ensure Chinese compliance. According to government
documents, in public speeches and bilateral forums, officials
habitually encourage Chinese compliance. In addition, they have
threatened to use the WTO dispute settlement process if the Chinese
renege on their agreements.
On
a more concrete level, the U.S. government has reoriented its
agendas, made organizational changes, and established various
mechanisms to promote Chinese compliance. In Washington, the government
has created an interagency Trade Policy Staff Committee Subcommittee
on China WTO compliance, consisting of members from the Departments
of State, Commerce, Agriculture, and Treasury. Within the Department
of Commerce, officials have established a rapid response China
Team. Paralleling these efforts, the American embassy in Beijing
has established a WTO Implementation Coordination Committee and
an Intellectual Property Rights working group. These initiatives
aim to coordinate information-gathering, track and analyze changes
in Chinese laws and regulations, monitor China's implementation
plans and enforcement activities, and communicate issues to Chinese
officials.
The
U.S. government also is engaged in a serious effort to enhance China's
capacity to fulfill its WTO obligations. It is training Chinese
officials, academics, and SOE managers in WTO requirements, hosting
workshops, and developing video and Internet courses. Complementing
this, it is furnishing law books, translating documents, and giving
seed-grants to capacity building programs such as a WTO e-learning
program.
Chinese
interests and American efforts will ensure a good degree of Chinese
conformity with the WTO. China's desire to achieve great power status
gives it added incentives to perform its obligations because fulfillment
will help it develop a trustworthy reputation and discredit claims
it is bent on overhauling the world capitalist system. Nevertheless,
it remains doubtful that China will fully observe its obligations
partly because of the sheer volume of requirements. More fundamentally,
China will not comply completely because of its domestic political
situation, lack of implementation capacity, and its economic might.
China
is not a democracy. Its leaders, though, still must preserve their
standing among the public and key constituencies - e.g., the People's
Liberation Army and Communist party officials - if they wish to
stay in power. This means they have powerful incentives to ensure
that the WTO produces less rather than more unemployment and smaller
rather than larger income inequalities. Related to this, they have
incentives to minimize the influx of subversive foreign ideas. Given
these pressures, it is probable that Chinese leaders will fail to
or will slowly implement parts of their WTO agreements. They will
be prone to enforce WTO rules in a non-aggressive fashion. They
are liable to provide illegal subsidies and exemptions to Chinese
SOEs to buffer the impact of China's WTO membership and they are
likely to take steps to control the influx of foreign ideas. Importantly,
if the leadership's political power diminishes, then its willingness
to violate its accession accords could increase dramatically.
Another
factor that will limit China's performance of its obligations is
its inadequate implementation infrastructure. Beijing can command,
but subnational entities and citizens are unlikely to obey unless
the government can expand its training activities. Beyond this,
the Chinese government has to socialize multiple governmental levels
to embrace "alien" WTO norms, which emphasize transparency, market
mechanisms, and the rule of law. In conjunction, it needs to enhance
its ability to monitor compliance while establishing genuine mechanisms
for penalizing WTO violators.
A
final factor that will reduce China's compliance levels is its economic
might. As suggested by American and European defiance of WTO rulings,
China's economic power should allow it to absorb the relatively
small cost of WTO sanctions. Of course, an economically-powerful
China can leverage its strength against companies that will be inclined
to complain about Chinese noncompliance or that might threaten to
exit China. As an economically powerful country, China too does
not have to rely as much as other states on reputation since it
can bestow economic rewards that others covet.
Over
the long run, there are several trends that will encourage Chinese
compliance. For instance, China's participation in the WTO system
will lead to the creation of new agencies, the incorporation of
WTO-norms into bureaucratic procedures, and the production of research.
These developments, in turn, will create knowledge, beliefs, and
behaviors that encourage compliance. Second, the continued growth
of Chinese exporters and multinationals will create a constituency
for WTO observance. Third, the expansion of free trade and investment
regimes in East Asian will encourage the adoption of WTO-friendly
practices.
To
conclude, over the short- and long-term, many factors will push
China to meet its commitments. These factors will take China only
so far, however, because they are counteracted by the forces enumerated
above. It is encouraging, therefore, that the U.S. is cajoling China
and facilitating its capacity building since these initiatives push
China further than it might go on its own. Unfortunately, recent
U.S. government responses to WTO decisions, which suggest it is
playing by its own, rather than WTO, rules risk undermining these
efforts by setting a bad example.
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Editor: Dr. Scott B. MacDonald, Sr. Consultant
Deputy Editor: Dr. Jonathan Lemco, Director and Sr. Consultant
Associate Editors: Robert Windorf, Darin Feldman
Publisher: Keith W. Rabin, President
Web Design: Michael Feldman, Sr. Consultant
Contributing Writers to this Edition: Scott B. MacDonald, Keith W. Rabin, Uwe Bott, Jonathan Lemco, Jim Johnson, Andrew Novo, Joe Moroney, Russell Smith, and Jon Hartzell
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