Turkish Taffy: Update On the Turkish Political Scene

By Robert Windorf

Over the past few months, the Turkish political scene, like that famous candy from yesteryear, has been quite sticky and has given the nation's political and military leaders and citizens plenty to chew on. Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit's chronic illness, which has left him increasingly politically ineffective to see through the many necessary economic and political reform measures under last year's IMF $16 billion rescue package, led to mass resignations from his cabinet and defections from the ruling Democratic Left Party (DSP) this past July. This was not much of a surprise as many observers had long predicted the eventual collapse of the ruling three party coalition. Despite numerous pleas from his original supporters and the opposition parties, Ecevit originally stubbornly refused to step down or agree to early parliamentary elections. He feared that early elections would further jeopardize Turkey's hopes for EU entry and plunge the economy back into chaos. However, with dwindling options, especially following the quick formation of new political parties by his cabinet defectors, he finally agreed to an election date of November 3rd.

Soon after Ecevit's decision, a few politicians further complicated matters by challenging that date claiming it would not allow enough time for the nation to prepare for the elections. In addition, just last week, an electoral board announced that the head of the Justice and Development Party (AKP), Recep Tayyip Erdogan (the former mayor of Istanbul), would be banned from running in the election because of his past conviction for Islamic sedition. Despite the military and urban middle class' deep suspicions of Erdogan's reported disavowal of political Islam and adoption of secular principles, he vows to fight on, as the AKP arguably remains the most popular political party. Nevertheless, as of this writing, the elections are still scheduled for November and the volatile campaign season is in full swing.

No less than 20 political parties will be vying for seats in the new parliament. The most prominent include the following: Democratic Left Party (DSP), headed by Ecevit, has suffered the loss of more than half its deputies since July and, in turn, fell from second place in the opinion polls to fourth. Nationalist Action Party (MHP), built on rigid nationalist policies, including a tough stance against the Kurds and aversions toward planned reforms to fulfill EU membership, is now the largest party; yet, current polls suggest it may not meet the required 10% quota to retain seats in parliament. Motherland Party (Anap), the junior conservative member of the government coalition, is badly lagging in the polls. Justice and Development Party (AKP), formed last year by moderate members of the outlawed pro-Islamic Virtue Party, at present, stands potentially to gain the most seats leading to worries for the secular establishment. New Turkey Party (YTP), formed by defectors from Ecevit's cabinet, Ismail Cem and Husamettin Ozkan, has become the fifth largest party and reportedly enjoys the support of former revered Minister of the Economy, Kemal Dervis. True Path (DYP), led by former Prime Minister, Tansu Ciller, the main conservative opposition party, holds a powerful nationalist base in rural Anatolia. Republican People's Party (CHP), the main center-leftist rival to DSP which could regain seats in light of DSP's desperate state. Peoples Democracy Party (Hadep), accused by Ecevit of links to the rebels within the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), could reach the 10% quota; however, local analysts doubt if the party would be invited to join the future governing coalition.

Given the capricious nature of Turkish politics, we believe it is too soon to predict an election outcome. However, of more importance is to watch the lame duck coalition's actions during its last weeks in power following the recently approved legislation to abolish the death penalty and to establish language rights for the Kurds, bold moves designed to continue to support hopes for EU membership. Yet, we believe that interested observes should keep tabs on developments surrounding Erdogan's fight for recognition and the New Turkey Party's potential to gain more votes than expected.

According to latest reports, the economy rebounded from its recent crisis, as GDP rose by an annual 8.2% during the second quarter (4.7% for the first 6 months). While such a gain may be temporary, it is seen as significant given the 7.4% decline in GDP for all of 2001. However, business and consumer confidence remain low and with the escalating prospects for the west's military actions against Iraq, along with the uncertain political environment, growth may stagnate over the near term. In addition, two major conditions act as roadblocks for sustainable economic prospects: the slow pace of necessary banking industry reforms and insufficient flows of direct foreign investment. While the scale of such investment will largely hang on the prospects for a regional military conflict, outside influences should not delay the continued and overdue redesign of the banking industry.