Ukraine: Takin' It to the Streets

By Robert Windorf

Over the past few weeks, political tensions in Ukraine have escalated to troubling heights. Despite court orders to ban them, several nationwide protests by tens of thousands over the past two weeks have called for President Leonid Kuchma's resignation. With Kuchma recently away in Austria in an endeavor to convince political and business leaders to support Ukraine's struggling efforts to join the EU, protests began around the second anniversary of the disappearance of investigative journalist Heorhiy Gongadze. Opposition groups hold Kuchma responsible for his murder, along with the economy's chronic malaise, and alleged fraudulent activities during the March parliamentary elections.

The present political situation has left the Ukrainian parliament in a state of paralysis. Although a recent poll revealed more than 70 percent of the people support Kuchma's removal, the popular former Prime Minister Viktor Yushchenko and other opposition leaders assert strong pro-Kuchma forces have continued to pressure legislators to support the beleaguered president. While opposition parties won the majority of the popular vote in the spring, they have since failed to control parliament, making it very tough to remove the Kuchma regime. Nevertheless, following Yushchenko's participation this past Monday with socialist, communist, and capitalist party leaders at a Kiev rally that reportedly drew more than 20,000, he returned to parliament to negotiate a new coalition, resigned to the premise that no real mechanism exists to force Kuchma to resign. However, it remains to be seen how successful such negotiations will be.

Despite his popularity, Yushchenko has frustrated the hopes of many who seek immediate and radical solutions to the nation's troubles, as he reportedly prefers calculated negotiations to achieve solutions. With the presidential election two years away, Yushchenko and his supports will arguably have plenty of time to unseat Kuchma. However, given the circumstances surrounding the present heated political environment, it should not be ruled-out that a snap parliamentary election could be called before 2004 that might then possibly lead to some dilution of Kuchma's parliamentary power. Given Yushchenko's history of messy disputes with the president's affiliated parties, at present, we believe he will continue to endeavor to work on a new potential coalition; however, his efforts are probably more suited toward the 2004 election.

A spate of unfortunate events during the past year including the unintentional downing of a Russian passenger jet by a missile, a military air show crash, and a coal mine explosion have continued to expose the Kuchma government's apathy and ineffectiveness. While Russia has moved closer to the west during the past year, Ukraine continues to lag far behind. Much is at stake for both sides. Ukraine, a nation of 50 million with important natural resources, represents a strategic bridge between east and west. Aligning it to the west also would no doubt influence Russia to remain in Europe, as well. In addition, on the heels of reports that Iraq may have recently acquired military surveillance equipment from Ukraine in its supposed efforts to prepare for a potential conflict with the west, developments in Ukraine will continue to attract attention.